AGP Executive Report

Disease Watch: Iraq suspended transit of live animals from Syria and tightened border veterinary checks after foot-and-mouth disease reports in Raqqa, warning against misleading claims while inspections ramp up nationwide. Public Health: Nineveh recorded a new Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever case, the second in three days, with 16 cases logged since the year began. Environment Push: The government approved sweeping plastic-bag curbs—ending free distribution within six months, banning use in bakeries, stopping imports, and adding fees on producers to fund recycling and awareness. Money Pressure: Iraq’s oil-export slump and Hormuz disruptions are widening a projected $9.5bn monthly revenue gap, with an emergency plan weighing domestic and foreign borrowing plus higher non-oil income. Regional Security: Najaf’s senior cleric warned of reports about a new Arab coalition targeting Iraqi armed factions, as Baghdad investigates drone-linked accusations tied to the Barakah nuclear site. Energy Corridors: Türkiye is pitching new oil, gas and power routes—including extending the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline to Basra—to reduce chokepoint risk. Politics: Kurdistan PM Masrour Barzani is set to visit Baghdad for KRG-federal talks, while Iraq also considers a new security ministry to bring armed groups under state control.

Political Process: President Masoud Barzani met Izzat Al-Shabandar to discuss the challenges facing Iraq’s political process. Justice System: In Diyala, a court issued an arrest warrant for a four-year-old boy in a verbal-threats case—police say it was a clerical mix-up and the warrant was corrected after authorities realized the “wanted” person was the child, not his father. Regional Security: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi renewed Baghdad’s condemnation of drone attacks blamed on Iraqi territory, saying an elite committee will pursue “all security and legal measures” against those involved. Airspace Tensions: A senior Iraqi security official insisted Israel “cannot establish any foothold inside Iraq,” dismissing claims of Israeli bases as false. Maritime Search: Iraq mobilized rescue teams after contact was lost with two Bolivia-flagged vessels in the Gulf, with satellite tracking ongoing. Humanitarian/ICRC: Kuwait’s ICRC leadership praised Kuwait’s humanitarian role and new funding for relief across the region. Culture & Society: A new novel spotlights an Iraq War veteran’s post-war life and the fallout for displaced Iraqi families.

UK Asylum: A UK judge granted asylum to the 25-year-old son of a former Saddam-era security captain, saying he faces a real risk of being killed in Iraq by Shia militias after his uncle was kidnapped and his family received death threats. Basra Remembrance: A new digital memorial video lets families search the Basra Memorial Wall names, ranks and dates for UK service deaths from Operation Telic. Cabinet Push After Eid: Iraq’s ruling Coordination Framework says it will move to complete PM Ali al-Zaidi’s cabinet after Eid al-Adha, while also rejecting attacks on Gulf states and urging faster investigations. Gulf Drone Fallout: Iraq’s National Security Council backed a committee to probe alleged drone attacks launched from Iraqi territory after Saudi and UAE reports, as the UAE demanded Baghdad halt “all hostile acts” from its soil. Kurdistan Under Fire: Rudaw says Kurdistan has faced 855 drone/missile attacks since late February, with 20 deaths and 128 injuries. Barakah Nuclear Alarm: The UAE condemned a drone strike near Barakah, calling it a violation of sovereignty and urging immediate action.

Gulf Security Escalation: Iraq’s new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi opened his tenure by ordering investigations and possible legal action over claims that drones hit Saudi Arabia and the UAE from Iraqi territory, as the National Security Council formed a special committee to coordinate with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. UAE Pressure: The UAE demanded Baghdad stop “all hostile acts” from its soil, pointing to the Barakah nuclear plant drone attack and warning it could take “necessary measures” if Iraq fails. Oil Route Shock: With Hormuz disruptions tightening shipping, Iraq told oil officials to secure alternative export routes and keep tankers moving. Iran Tensions Spill Over: Iran’s expanding control of Hormuz—via checkpoints, deals, and sometimes fees—kept Iraqi crude tankers moving but raised the stakes for the region. Domestic Snapshot: Iraq’s judiciary reported 5,700 domestic violence cases and 17,200 divorce cases in early 2026 (excluding Kurdistan). Anti-Drug Win: Syria seized 25 million Captagon pills in its biggest bust yet.

UAE-Iraq Drone Row: The UAE demanded Iraq “immediately” stop hostile acts from its territory after drones it says were launched from Iraq hit a generator near the Barakah nuclear plant, reigniting nuclear-safety fears and prompting UN nuclear watchdog warnings. Regional Pressure: Saudi Arabia and the UAE also blamed Iraq for drone launches, while Iraq denied detecting drones heading from its soil toward Saudi Arabia. Hormuz Tension, Trade Moves: Strait of Hormuz traffic reportedly surged as talks between Washington and Tehran stayed in flux; Chinese and South Korean tankers were seen exiting or transiting under coordination. Iraq Security & Politics: Iraq’s new government approved environmental steps including a ban on plastic bags in bakeries, and Kurdish Peshmerga unification deadlines were reiterated. US-Iran War Fallout: A US Congress report claims up to 42 US aircraft were lost or damaged in the Iran conflict, as the US keeps signaling it’s not rushing to end the war.

Iran-Deal Hopes, Hormuz Movement: Two Chinese oil tankers exited the Strait of Hormuz as Trump and VP JD Vance publicly pushed optimism about talks with Tehran, after Trump said he was “an hour away” from striking but paused it—keeping pressure on Iran while trade anxieties ease. UAE Nuclear Plant Attack: The UAE says drones that hit the Barakah nuclear power plant came from Iraqi territory; it also reports intercepting six drones over 48 hours and says no radiation leak or injuries were recorded. Baghdad–Erbil Tensions: Iraq denies any plan to reroute the Kurdistan border crossing via Syria, insisting all crossings are treated equally as a new Turkey-to-Iraq convoy arrives through Syria. Health & Weather: Iraq recorded 837 suffocation cases from a major dust storm, with hospitals on high alert. Peshmerga Funding: A US official urged continued support for the Kurdish Peshmerga despite proposed 2027 budget cuts. Local Security: Iraq says it rejected or destroyed 3,550 tons of imports at the Ibrahim Khalil crossing for failing standards.

Drone Diplomacy: UAE says drones that hit the Barakah nuclear plant came from Iraqi territory, while Iraq insists it detected nothing and is ready to cooperate on verification—renewing the diplomatic squeeze on Baghdad as Gulf states watch closely. Iran-US Brinkmanship: Trump says he was about an hour from striking Iran before postponing, and now hints a deal is possible if Tehran makes progress; Iran meanwhile warns it could “open new fronts” if attacks resume. Regional Security Claims: Iraq’s Interior Ministry rejects reports of foreign bases in Najaf/Anbar, saying any activity was limited to the Iran-war period; separate reports keep the “secret bases” story alive. Public Health: Nineveh reports Iraq’s first Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever case of 2026. Economy & Markets: Iraq’s oil exports fell sharply in early 2026 as Hormuz disruptions bite, and the dollar eased slightly in Baghdad and Erbil. Anti-Drug Push: Interior Ministry says 12 cross-border anti-narcotics operations netted about 1.6 million tons of illicit substances in five months.

Iran-U.S. Brinkmanship: Trump says he paused a “scheduled” attack on Iran after Gulf leaders asked him to hold off, adding there’s a “very good chance” of a nuclear deal—while warning the U.S. is ready to strike if talks fail. Kurdistan Lines Under Strain: Erbil denies IRGC claims that Kurdistan allowed U.S. weapons shipments to Iran, stressing it won’t be pulled into a Tehran conflict. Drone Fallout: Iraq says it detected no drones toward Saudi Arabia and is investigating reports of three drones entering from Iraqi airspace; Kuwait and the GCC back Riyadh and call it a violation. Oil Pressure: Iraq’s April oil receipts fell to about $1.09B on roughly 9.88M barrels as Hormuz disruptions squeeze exports. Regional Trade Shift: The first Iraq-Turkey transit convoy arrived via Syria, raising questions about how routes may affect Kurdistan’s trade. Covert Bases Claims: New reports allege Israel built secret operational bases in western Iraq before the Iran war, which Baghdad denies.

Drone Dispute With Saudi Arabia: Iraq’s foreign ministry says its air defences detected no drones launched from Iraqi territory toward Saudi Arabia, even as Riyadh insists it intercepted and destroyed three drones that entered from Iraq and says it reserves the right to respond; Investigation Triggered: Baghdad says it opened an investigation and urged Riyadh to share information, with no group claiming responsibility; Covert War Claims: A new wave of reporting says Israel ran two secret bases in Iraq’s western desert to support operations against Iran, including an incident in March when a shepherd allegedly discovered the site and was later killed; Oil Numbers: Iraq posted a near-$24.7bn trade surplus for 2025, and April crude exports were reported at 9.884m barrels; Regional Tensions: The drone back-and-forth comes alongside renewed Gulf alarm after a strike near the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant, keeping the Iran-related standoff front and center.

Gulf Escalation: A drone strike hit the UAE’s Barakah nuclear power plant’s generator area, with no radiation release reported, as Iran warned the Gulf of Oman could become a “graveyard” for US ships if the blockade continues and US President Trump told Iran to act “fast.” Saudi-Iraq Tensions: Saudi Arabia said it intercepted and destroyed three drones entering from Iraqi airspace, adding it will respond to any sovereignty violations. Hormuz Pressure on Iraq: Iraq’s new oil minister said exports through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 10 million barrels in April, pushing Baghdad to lean on the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline and talks with Ankara to raise volumes. Covert War Claims: The NYT reported Israel ran at least two covert bases in Iraq’s western desert, with an Iraqi shepherd allegedly killed after discovering one. Security & Courts: In the US, an Iraqi linked to Kata’ib Hizballah/IRGC was charged over alleged plots against Jewish targets in multiple countries. Travel Update: Qatar Airways resumed double-daily Abu Dhabi flights and added Iraq routes.

Secret Bases Shock: A New York Times investigation says Israel ran at least two covert bases in Iraq’s western desert with U.S. awareness, including a logistics hub near Al-Nukhaib used in the 2025 and 2026 Iran-related conflicts, and that Iraqi radar shutdowns were pressured during the fighting. Pilgrimage Surge: Baghdad’s Al-Kadhimiya received 4.06M+ pilgrims by noon for the Imam Al-Jawad commemoration, with a “weapons-free city” plan and no major security breaches reported. Politics Under Pressure: Former MP Raed al-Maliki filed a conflict-of-interest complaint against PM Ali al-Zaidi and the Electricity Minister, while the KDP weighs legal action over a ministerial vote it says lasted “seven seconds.” Governance Fight: The Sudani-led coalition’s Reconstruction and Development bloc says cabinet posts were distributed unfairly. Regional Tensions: Sulaymaniyah urged Iran to stop strikes on Kurdistan, citing 700+ sovereignty violations. Economy & Power: CBI data shows foreign reserves fell about $1.8B in April’s final week as Hormuz risk threatens exports. Sports & Services: Iraq’s World Cup squad heads to Spain on private air support, as the new Electricity Minister vows to end the power crisis.

New PM in the spotlight: Ali al-Zaidi formally took office in Baghdad and immediately moved on security and the economy—holding his first security briefings with the PMF chief and army leadership, and chairing the first Financial Stability Council meeting hours after launching it. Cabinet still unfinished: Interior leadership was temporarily handed to Hussein al-Awadi while negotiations continue over remaining ministerial posts. Terror case escalates: US-linked reporting and Iraqi-linked arrests keep pressure on Iran-backed militias, with Elizabeth Tsurkov saying her captors shared details on Kataib Hezbollah operations, and US prosecutors charging Mohammad Baqer al-Saadi over alleged plots targeting Jewish sites in the US and Europe. Oil shock from Hormuz: Iraq’s oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to 10 million barrels in April, with production down to about 1.4 million bpd and Baghdad pushing more exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan route. Digital crackdown: Iraq’s regulator urged TikTok to comply with local law and address alleged money-laundering activity.

New PM Takes Office: Iraq officially handed power to Ali al-Zaidi, who swore in as prime minister and pledged a “comprehensive” reform push to fight corruption and diversify the economy. Reform vs. Deadlock: Parliament backed a partial cabinet (14 of 23 ministers), leaving key posts like interior and defense still contested. Oil Shock from Hormuz: Iraq’s oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to 10 million barrels in April (from about 93 million monthly pre-war), as tanker insurance and war risks choke flows; Baghdad is leaning on the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline and talks with Turkey to lift exports from 200,000 bpd toward 500,000 bpd. Security Crackdown Abroad: In the U.S., an Iraqi commander tied to Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah was charged in New York over alleged plans for attacks on Jewish sites across the U.S. and Europe. Regional Noise: Loud Baghdad blasts were later blamed on artillery salutes for the government handover. Diplomatic Signals: India’s Modi congratulated al-Zaidi, while Iran and others continue pressing de-escalation amid Hormuz tensions.

Iraq’s New Government Fractures: As Ali al-Zaidi’s cabinet wins confidence, Shiite blocs tied to the Coordination Framework are already walking out—National Contract and Sumariyoun quit Sudani’s coalition, and MP Ammar Youssef followed—while Shiite Bloc Talks: reports say five heavyweights are discussing a new parliamentary alliance that could reach up to 100 lawmakers and openly oppose al-Zaidi’s terms. Press Freedom Under Scrutiny: A Baghdad rights group says nearly 1,000 press freedom violations occurred under Sudani, warning new appointments could further squeeze expression. Security & Militias Clash With State-Control Pledge: Al-Nujaba says “resistance weapons” won’t fall under the government’s plan to restrict arms to state institutions. Regional Pressure Hits Daily Life: Airlines suspended or rerouted flights across Iraq and the region amid US-Iran-Israel tensions. International Fallout: US prosecutors announced the arrest of an Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah commander accused of plotting attacks on Jewish targets in Europe, Canada, and the US. Oil Logistics: Iraq plans to boost Basra crude exports via the Kirkuk-Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline.

Government Shake-Up: Iraq’s new PM Ali al-Zaidi was sworn in with a partial cabinet after parliament approved 14 ministers but postponed key posts like interior and defense amid factional deadlock. State Arms Policy: Al-Zaidi’s program pledges a state monopoly on weapons, tightening control over security forces as the U.S. presses Baghdad to curb Iran-linked militias. Kurdish Pressure: Kurdish lawmakers signal possible withdrawal or boycott over delayed Kurdistan salaries, while Barzani leaders publicly back the new government and call for constitutional partnership. IMF Talks: Iraq has approached the IMF and World Bank for financial help tied to the Iran-war fallout and lost oil revenue from Hormuz disruptions. Hormuz Energy Stress: Iraq is reportedly cutting oil prices sharply to keep exports moving as the strait remains risky; meanwhile the UAE is fast-tracking a Fujairah bypass pipeline to reduce reliance on Hormuz. Security Incidents: A “high-risk” terrorism suspect was detained in Babil, and a drone linked to the Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict was found in Dhi Qar. Big Claim in the Desert: Fresh reporting alleges a secret Israeli base in Iraq’s western desert—sparking renewed denials and political fallout.

Iraq’s New Government: Ali al-Zaidi was sworn in as prime minister after parliament backed his program and confirmed 14 ministers, but key posts like interior and defense remain stuck in negotiations—while he vowed a state monopoly on weapons amid heavy US pressure to rein in Iran-backed groups. IMF/World Bank Talks: With oil exports battered by the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz disruption, Iraq has opened discussions with the IMF and World Bank to plug a budget gap once the government is fully formed. Regional Diplomacy: Türkiye welcomed the new cabinet and pledged support; Iran also congratulated Baghdad and reiterated “brotherly ties” as a top priority. Security & War Fallout: US officials say Iran-aligned militias hit US interests 350+ times before the war, and Iraq’s political reset is unfolding under that shadow. Trade Pulse: Truck traffic at Jordan’s Karameh crossing jumped after extended hours, signaling pressure relief for regional commerce.